E-commerce, AI and local brands to drive APAC consumer growth in 2026: report

Singapore – Asia Pacific is on track to overtake North America as the world’s largest consumer market by 2035, driven by accelerating e-commerce adoption, growing use of AI, and the rise of local brands, according to a joint report by Bain & Company and NielsenIQ (NIQ).

Private consumption in the region is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7% to reach $36 trillion by the end of the next decade, the report said. This comes as global private consumption is projected to nearly double, from about $65 trillion in 2025 to between $110 trillion and $120 trillion by 2035.

The shift highlights changing consumption patterns across Asia Pacific, with spending growth becoming more fragmented across markets and channels. These changes are expected to shape consumer dynamics in 2026 and beyond.

In the moving annual total ending June 2025, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) value in Asia Pacific grew 4%, supported by 2.8% volume growth and 1.2% price increases. This contrasts with growth in North America and Western Europe, which has been largely driven by price inflation. While the region remains a key growth engine for global consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, performance continues to vary widely by market.

NIQ data shows that India continues to gain momentum, with FMCG value growth accelerating from 7.2% in 2024 to 13.7% in the first half of 2025. Southeast Asia, however, saw growth ease to 1.8%, down from 3.5% a year earlier. China showed early signs of recovery, with FMCG growth rising from 2.8% in 2024 to 4.7% in the first half of 2025, driven largely by online sales. South Korea’s performance also remained supported by continued e-commerce expansion.

According to the report, these uneven growth patterns underscore the need for more localised market strategies.

Looking ahead to 2026, Bain and NIQ identified six forces expected to shape the region’s consumer landscape. The first is shifting market dynamics, as Asia Pacific moves away from reliance on a single growth engine. While China remains the largest contributor to regional GDP growth, India and parts of Southeast Asia are expected to increase in economic significance, creating a more multi-market growth environment.

The report also pointed to diverging consumer preferences across markets. Pricing behaviour is not uniform, with signs of premiumisation in markets such as India and Indonesia, while China shows increasing polarisation between value and premium segments.

Channel complexity is also increasing, with online sales remaining the primary growth driver. E-commerce accounts for about 40% of FMCG sales in both China and South Korea, while social commerce and quick commerce are expanding rapidly. A NIQ survey found that 39% of Asia-Pacific consumers already use generative AI when shopping online, with a further 40% indicating a willingness to adopt it.

Another trend highlighted is the rise of local and regional brands. Domestic players are gaining share across most developing markets in the region, with the exception of India. These brands are often moving faster in innovation and adapting more closely to local consumer needs compared with multinational competitors.

The report also cited scalable agility as an emerging differentiator, as CPG companies seek to replicate successful practices across markets to improve speed and cost efficiency. In addition, AI is increasingly being embedded across the value chain, from product development to marketing, sales and supply chains, as companies look to support faster and more data-driven decision-making.

“In China, India, Indonesia and Thailand, where adoption is higher than the regional average, over 50% of consumers are already using generative AI to help with their online shopping. As Asia Pacific consumers continuously look for more convenience and affordability, we expect generative AI to play a bigger part in empowering the shopper,” said Craig Houliston, Asia Pacific regional consulting and insights lead at NIQ. 

To sustain growth, Bain and NIQ said CPG companies will need to clearly define the role of each market—whether as a growth driver, profit centre or testing ground—and align investments accordingly. The report also highlighted the importance of building channel-specific business models and strengthening in-market decision-making, while scaling AI adoption using reliable data and consumer insights.

“The APAC region is complex in nature. Consumer behaviours and channel dynamics are fragmenting faster than ever,” added Elle Yang, partner at Bain & Company. “Winning in this environment means having the courage to localise – adapting faster to market signals while building models that can scale across borders.”

“Asia Pacific is where the next decade of global consumption will be decided,” said David Zehner, head of the APAC Consumer Products practice at Bain & Company. “The region’s opportunities, while vast, are uneven across markets – and companies need to understand local nuances while scaling to capture the full potential of the APAC region.”